Warning: This is very long, you will think I am a loser after reading this.
Well, it appears that everybody has their solutions for the giant mess that is the BCS. I, myself, have a bunch of solutions and, apparently, listing them all here is more important than all of my finals and graduate school applications. So, let's take a look at a few of the arguments for and against the BCS.
For: It is better than the previous system, it makes the regular season incredibly meaningful, and it preserves the history and pageantry of the bowl system. Not to mention that many conferences, athletic programs, and University presidents stand to lose money if the system changes. So, for a new system to be successful, it will have to be practical, fair, and meet all of the requirements mentioned above. To recap, a new system will have to be better than the previous system, (which was pretty much all power teams play nobody of relevance, and the team that was most impressive in its blowout victories/has the biggest name becomes national champion) that shouldn't be too hard to top. It must also keep people who love the bowl system relatively happy, and it must generate revenue on the same scale that the BCS does. (Note: I am an accountant or an economist, so I'm just kinda hoping on that point.) Lastly it must keep the regular season meaningful, which shouldn't be too hard since most people still think the NFL regular season is meaningful.
Against: Basically, it sucks. It screws deserving teams out of the chance to play for a championship. That is pretty much all a new system has to do to fix this, don't screw any deserving teams. This is, however, probably going to happen in all practical systems.
Ok, let's get down to the nitty gritty here, each of these systems will be graded on a few factors:
Chances of it ever happening- This covers the money and practicality of the system, as well as keeping with the bowl tradition. This also accounts for if it keeps the regular season significant.
Fun Factor- This explains itself, but it covers if the system is better than the previous one.
Screw Factor- This rating takes into account how many deserving teams would be screwed by each system, thus ensuring a fair way to crown a national champion.
Before we get to the proposals (I told you this was long) let's meet our "deserving" teams. Basically, these are the teams that can really claim they have a shot to win the national title, and I will evaluate how "deserving" I think they really are. They are listed by BCS rank.
1.Alabama- No argument here, with the win over Florida they proved their the top team in the land, despite a lackluster performance against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. But there are systems where I do not see them winning it all.
2. Texas- No doubt Texas deserves a chance to play for a national title. They ran the table in the Big 12, no small task, but looked average against Texas A&M and Nebraska to close out the year.
3. Cincinnati- They ran the table, but I have a hard time considering the Big East any better than the Mountain West or even the WAC. Still, the Bearcats did what they had to do, winning close games home against West Virginia and at Pittsburgh, so they have to be considered. What sucks for them is their coach bolted for greener pastures. For arguments sake in these projections, I am going to pretend that didn't happen in for of my models.
4. TCU- The Horned Frogs, to me, are the only team that has a legitimate gripe under the current system. No offense to Cincy, but TCU beat as many teams that are currently ranked, and did it in more impressive fashion than the Bearcats did, beating Utah and BYU by a combined 58 points. They also scored a very impressive early season road win against Clemson, a team better than any team Cincy played not named Pitt or West Virginia.
5. Florida- In actuality, the Gators are probably the second best team in the country. Unfortunately, as the SEC title game showed us, it is a distant second. Florida will probably blow the Bearcats, who have been abandoned by their head coach Brian Kelly who left for Notre Dame, in the Sugar Bowl. That's rough because I would really have liked to see a fully prepared, not distracted, Cincinnati team play Florida on a neutral site, but that is not what we will get.
6. Boise State- This team really impressed me with their season opening win against Oregon at home. They absolutely man handled the Ducks (who are going to a more prestigious bowl than them) and looked like a team that could contend for a national title. Then I looked at their remaining schedule and said "not a chance." Oregon was the only ranked team they played all year and unranked Tulsa, Nevada, and Louisiana Tech were all able to give the Broncos fights. Sorry Boise, this year I don't think you could hang with the big boys. It is, however, a travesty and a cop out that they matched Boise and TCU up in the Fiesta Bowl. These two teams met last year in the Poinsettia bowl, and both deserve a shot at a BCS school.
7. Oregon- The Ducks, as I mentioned earlier, lost in Boise to start the season, but then caught fire, winning their next seven games before losing a tough road battle to an underrated Stanford team. Though my Boilermakers gave them a bitter fight in their second game, I really like Oregon's offense, and I think it gives them a puncher's chance against any team they play. Still, they have no real argument for why they should be playing for a title, much like our last team...
8. Ohio State- I'm sorry, but I watched this team come in to Ross Ade Stadium and get man handled by the Boilers, so I have a hard time thinking that they have any right to claim a shot at the title. They play great D, but turn the ball over too much, and are sometimes downright ugly to watch on offense. Also, their biggest win of the year was at home against an overrated Iowa team who was without their starting quarterback, and the game was still very close. They did score an impressively decisive win in Happy Valley against Penn State, so I will give them that credit.
Now, finally, without further delay, here are my proposals...
Pure Playoff- This is what everybody wants isn't it? It will also never happen, let's get that out of the way right now. First, let's look at the criteria for making this national tournament: I don't see why the Big East and ACC get automatic BCS bids and the MWC and WAC do not so, the winners of the six BCS conferences and the MWC and WAC all get automatic bids. I then think the country should be divided up in to East and West, with the MWC, WAC, Pac 10, and Big 12 making up the West, and the Big 10, SEC, ACC, and Big East making up the East. The top four seeds in each region are automatic qualifiers and they are seeded based on their BCS rank. So, it would look like this for 2009:
West
1. Texas- Big 12 1
2. TCU- MWC
3. Boise- WAC
4. Oregon- Pac 10
East
1. Alabama
2. Cincinnati
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia Tech
Next, four at large bids would be selected from each region based on their BCS rank. However, like in the current BCS, there can be no more than two teams from any conference. Sorry, but if you don't finish in the top two in your conference, I have a hard time believing you are the best team in the country. Also, team's from conferences like Conference USA and the MAC can be added in to either side if they are ranked in any poll and there is room for them. So, the at large's would go like this:
West
5. BYU- MWC
6. Oregon State- Pac 10
7. Oklahoma State- Big 12
8. Central Michigan- MAC
East
5. Florida
6. Iowa
7. Virginia Tech
8. West Virginia
The bracket is then put together with 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7 and so on. In the second round, it would be (1 or 8) vs (4 or 5), and (2 or 7) vs (3 or 6). The first two rounds, the higher seeded team gets home field advantage. The regional championships will be held at the Fiesta Bowl for the West region, and the Orange Bowl for the East Region. The national title game will rotate between the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl every year. Out of the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl, whichever is not hosting the national title game, will get the two highest ranked teams to not make the tournament to play in their bowl game.
West
First Round:Texas def. C. Michigan, TCU def. Oklahoma St. Boise St. def. Oregon St. and Oregon def. BYU
Second Round: Texas def. Oregon and TCU def. Boise St.
West Championship played at Fiesta Bowl: TCU def. Texas.
East
First Round: Alabama def. West Virginia, Cincinnati def. Virginia Tech, Ohio State def. Iowa, and Florida wins at Georgia Tech.
Second Round: Alabama def. Florida, Ohio State wins at Cincinnati.
East Championship played at Orange Bowl: Alabama def. Ohio State.
National Title Game at Rose Bowl: Alabama def. TCU: Champion
Proposal Rating:
Chances of it Ever Happening- 0. Or about as much chance as Notre Dame has of winning the title next year.
Fun Factor- 10. Not only is the tournament idea awesome, it creates the possibity of interesting home field advantages. How would Florida cope if they had to play in Columbus in late December with temperatures around zero and snow coming down? Who knows.
Screw Factor- 10. You want a high number in all of them, so this should really be called the not screwed factor, but you get the point. No team left out has a legit argument to be No. 1.
Bowl Bonanza (The March Madness Model)- This is my favorite one because I happen to really like the bowl system and think it should stay in place. But, I also like for bowls to mean something, and here I think there is a happy median of the two. The top six bowl games will get to mean the most, so I am using the BCS bowls (Rose, Fiesta, Orange, and Sugar) and adding to them the Cotton Bowl and the Capital One Bowl. Those six bowls will host a national tournament of eight teams with the championship game being played at one of the four BCS bowl sites on a rotating basis, just like it is in the current system. So, the top eight teams, regardless of conference, are in a bracket like so:
1. Alabama
Orange Bowl
8. Ohio State
4. TCU
Cotton Bowl
5. Florida
3. Cincinnati
Capital One Bowl
6. Boise St.
2. Texas
Fiesta Bowl
7. Oregon
The Orange Bowl and Fiesta Bowl would get the top two ranked teams, and the Cotton Bowl would get the most intruiging matchup at 4 vs 5. Here, I think TCU upsets Florida because the Cotton Bowl is basically a home game for them. Lucky Horned Forgs. Next, the winners of these bowl games would meet in either the Rose Bowl or the Sugar Bowl, based on which is a better geographic fit for each game. So:
1. Alabama
Sugar Bowl
5. TCU
2. Texas
Rose Bowl
3. Cinicinnati
Now the winners of those two games play each other for the title, so Bama would play Texas. And I pick Bama.
But, that's not it. This is the March Madness Model, and the other part of March Madness is the NIT Tounrament. Does college football need an NIT? Absolutely not, but it would make a bunch of marginal bowl games very interesting, so I am going to propose an eight team NIT using up the next seven bowl games and boom, suddenly 14 bowl games actually matter, not one. I think you split the country in half again and include the mid majors. I think the MAC, WAC, Mountain West, and Conference USA, should all get automatic bids to this tournament, with the MAC and C-USA are in the East, with the MWC and WAC in the west, to go with their BCS counterparts. The seven bowls I would use are:
East- Gator, Outback, Chick-fil-A, and Liberty.
West- Holiday, Sun, and Alamo.
Title game in Gator Bowl. Here's the bracket:
West East
1. BYU 1. Ga. Tech
Sun Bowl Chic-fil-A Bowl
4. Arizona 4. E. Carolina
2. Oregon St. 2. Iowa Alamo Bowl Liberty Bowl
3. Oklahoma St. 3. C. Michigan
Sun Bowl Winner vs Alamo Bowl winner in the Holiday Bowl
1.BYU vs 3. Oklahoma St.- Winner Oklahoma St.
Chic-fil-A Bowl winner vs Liberty Bowl winner
1. Ga. Tech vs C. Michigan
Gator Bowl
Oklahoma St. vs Ga. Tech
NIT Champion- Oklahoma St.
This is what I love about this system. Even a team like OSU, who lost some disappointing games, can end their season on a very positive note.
Proposal Rating
Chances of it ever happening: 4. It's a complex idea, but it keeps the traditional bowl structure and turns it into a playoff at the top. It takes it from one meaningful bowl game to 14. And, you could still fill in the other 20 bowls after this, so yes, Purdue could go back to Detroit if they so choose.
Fun Factor- 8. You have to love that it gives the MAC and Conference USA champs something to play for other than a game against the worst team in the Big Ten or SEC. Plus it could set up some very interesting matchups in both brackets.
Screw Factor- 10. Again, nobody can really gripe about this one.
Re-rank system:
This proposal calls for the BCS to still exist, except for the championship game, and invite teams based on historical tie-ins plus current BCS qualifying rules. These game would be played, then a a four team playoff would ensue after those games were played and the teams re-ranked. For example.
Rose Bowl- 8. Ohio State vs 7. Oregon (Big Ten vs Pac 10)
Orange Bowl- 9. Georgia Tech vs 3. Cincinnati (ACC vs at large)
Sugar Bowl- 1. Alabama vs 6. Boise St. (SEC vs at large)
Fiesta Bowl- 2. Texas vs 4. TCU (Big 12 vs at large)
Now, I know what you are thinking; Where the heck is 5. Florida?? Well, according to BCS rules, if a team is undeafeated and ranked in the top 8, they must make the BCS. So, Boise St. gets in over Florida even though the Gators are ranked higher. Another note: The at large bid for the Orange Bowl almost always goes to the Big East Champ because they have no historical tie in, but have an automatic BCS berth. There is still hope for Flordia. For instance, if Texas were to beat TCU, Georgia Tech were to upset Cincinnati, and Alabama were to beat Boise St. the new rankings would likely be:
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Rose Bowl Champ
4. Florida
In fact, Florida could get in if only two of those things happened. This is all assuming Florida won their bowl game, which would likely be the Capital One Bowl against Iowa.
But, under my predictions Florida is not so lucky because I believe Oregon wins the Rose Bowl, Cincinnati wins the Orange Bowl, TCU pulls the upset in the Fiesta Bowl, and Alabama wins the Sugar Bowl. When re-ranked, the teams end up like this.
1. Alabama
2.TCU
3. Cincinnati
4. Oregon- Here the Ducks jump Florida because of a more impressive bowl victory and a conference championship.
Here is where it gets fun. The first two weeks of the second semester decide the champion.
Oregon travels to Alabama and Cincinnati travels to TCU. Both home teams win and a championship game is played in the brand new Cowboys Stadium where the Horned Frogs, riding their home field advantage, take home the national championship.
Proposal Rating
Chances it will ever happen- 6. Still not a great chance, but this one allows the BCS to do its thing, then rewards winning schools with an additional home game, where they will be the only game on TV, to earn more revenue.
Fun Factor- 8. It's a little less fun because less teams are included, but it involves bowls and home field advantage, so that's gotta count for something.
Screw Factor- 5. This one really screws Florida, but that's what happens when you try to stick to BCS rules; someone gets screwed.
Cut the BS Proposal
Ok, so, like the title says, let's cut the BS. This is all about the eye ball test, so a selection committee will be involved. For our purposes, I will be the committee here. Just like the NCAA tournament, 1 seeds, 2 seeds, 3 seeds, and 4 seeds will be selected and stuck in brackets.
My 1 seeds are Alabama, and Texas, TCU and Florida. 2 seeds are Cincinnati, Boise St. Oregon, and Ohio State. 3 seeds are Georgia Tech, LSU, Penn State, and Virginia Tech. My 4 seeds are Iowa, BYU, Oregon St. and Oklahoma St. Here are the regions and seeds.
East
1.Florida
2.Cincinnati
3. Georgia Tech
4. Iowa
West
1.Texas
2.Boise St.
3. Penn St.
4. Oregon St.
North
1.TCU
2.Oregon
3. Virginia Tech
4. BYU
South
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma St.
And yes, I am aware I dropped Iowa (they have no quarterback at the moment) and BYU (they are quite overrated, did you see them play FSU?) and completely left out Pitt and West Virginia (the Big East sucks). But, hey, when you're a one man committee, you gotta make tough decisions. Anyways, it plays out 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 with the winner playing each other in every bracket. The south winner then plays the north winner, and the east winner plays the west winner. Oh, by the way, all of these games are home games for the higher seed, even the championship game. If that doesn't make for an intense environment, I don't know what will.
So, the results, starting in the East: I like Florida to beat Iowa and Cincinnati in the Swamp.
In the West: Texas beats Oregon St. but Penn St. upsets Boise St. Penn St. then goes on the road an upends the Longhorns.
In the North: TCU beats BYU again convincingly, and wins a squeeker the following week against Oregon.
In the South: Alabama beats OK St. but LSU upsets Ohio State. Alabama then takes care of LSU again.
Semi-finals
Penn State @ Florida- Gators roll as Penn State fails to move the ball against the Gator defense.
TCU @ Alabama- A defensive struggle comes down to the wire but the Tide is too tough in Tuscaloosa.
Championship
Florida @ Alabama- Tebow has the troops fired up but, as we saw the first time, Alabama is the better team. Tide wins, but only by a score this time.
Proposal Ratings
Chance it ever happens- 0. As in, not an effing chance. This thing would go into the second semester, a major no-no to university presidents and cost the bowls all their revenue.
Fun Factor- 9. You lose a point because there is no bowl environment, but college football is really about the atmosphere of a home game, not a neutral site one.
Screw Factor- 9. Nobody is left out, but I may have screwed Iowa out of a higher seed, and Pitt and WVU would no doubt be pissed. Still, in the end, none of them can say they earned No. 1 with the way they played this year.
Plus One Proposal
This is what all the pundits have told us has the best chance of happening, so let's see how it works. It works the exact same way as the re rank system and you end up with Alabama vs TCU, and me saying Alabama wins the title this time around because the game would be in Arizona, not Dallas.
Proposal Rating
Chance it ever happens- 7. If it's gonna be any of them, this is probably the one.
Fun Factor- 6. I give it a six, because I give the current system a five, and this is slightly better. You get a more deserving champion, but it is such a vanilla solution.
Screw Factor- 2. The current system has a Screw Factor of 1 (the worst you can get) so this is a slight upgrade. Watch out because Cincinnati, and Boise St. will both have legit arguments to be No. 1 here. Oh well, at least that's one less team. Florida could gripe too, but they had their shot at Bama, and all of the other teams ranked highly have two losses.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
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